Crude oil may fall below $60 by December 2025. That’s the bold forecast from S&P Global, and it’s turning heads. While most of the world cuts back, India is doing the opposite — buying more oil than ever.
At the S&P Commodity Market Insights Forum on July 3, Premasish Das, Executive Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, made it clear:
“There’s too much supply and not enough demand. That’s why crude could slide to $55–$60 by the end of the year.”
The Supply Story
It started in April. OPEC+, which includes big oil players like Saudi Arabia and Russia, began unwinding its 2.2 million barrel per day production cut. That move had one big message: they’re no longer defending high prices.
And the market felt it — crude dipped close to $60 before bouncing back to around $70. But Das warns, if OPEC+ stays quiet and doesn’t cut again, prices are likely to drop further.
“We’re not expecting any cuts from OPEC+, so the oversupply will grow,” he said.
Add to that China’s economic slowdown — a major drag on global oil demand — and the stage is set for a major price slide.
But Wait—India Is on Another Track
Here’s where the plot twists. While global demand cools, India is heating up.
Das expects India’s oil demand to rise by 110,000 to 120,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2025. That’s no small number. It signals a clear divide between East and West — between growth and stagnation.
India’s growth is real, and it’s hungry for energy.
Risk Still Lurks in the Shadows
Das also mentioned wildcards. The Iran-Israel conflict and any surprise production cuts by OPEC+ could push prices back to $70–$75.
But if those don’t materialize, the market stays flooded, and crude keeps falling.
This is more than just numbers. It’s a clash of priorities. While oil giants chase price control and markets tighten their belts, India is racing ahead. It’s not about saving pennies — it’s about fueling ambition.
India is choosing mission over margin, growth over global gloom.
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