A new report from ratings agency ICRA says that India’s agricultural sector is likely to grow at 4.5% in the first quarter of FY26, which is slower than the 5.4% growth in the previous quarter. The slowdown is mainly due to uneven sowing of crops and less consistent rainfall.
This slower growth can affect rural incomes and spending, which in turn may impact the overall economy. However, the report also says that good output from rabi (winter) and summer crops is helping keep the farm sector stable.
For the full year FY26, ICRA expects farm growth to be around 3.5% to 4%, slightly lower than 4.6% in FY25. The agency believes the upcoming Kharif season (monsoon crops) will be healthy enough to support this growth.
Read more: GST Collections Rise 7.5% to ₹1.95 Lakh Crore in July, But Slower Growth and Rising Refunds Spark Concerns
Mixed Results in Crop Sowing:
- Moong (green gram), rice, and maize saw good sowing numbers.
- Arhar (pigeon pea), urad (black gram), and soybean were planted less compared to last year.
- By July 25, the total area for pulse crops was 72% of normal, slightly better than 69% last year.
- Moong sowing increased by 16.1%.
- But arhar fell by 8.1% and urad by 6.7%.
Oilseed Crops:
- The area for oilseeds dropped by 2.2% compared to last year.
- Sunflower: -5.1%
- Soybean: -3.8%
- Niger: -86.4%
- Groundnut had only a slight rise: +1%
Rainfall Will Be Crucial:
Rain is key for a good crop season. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts above-normal rainfall in August and September 2025, which should help farmers. Also, the El Niño weather pattern is not expected to disturb rainfall this time.
However, the distribution of rainfall (when and where it rains) will be important.
- July 2025 saw 105% of average rainfall, slightly less than IMD’s forecast of 106%.
- First half of July: 11% more than average
- Second half: 0.5% less than average
The monsoon started late in early June, with only 69% of expected rainfall by June 15. But the situation improved later, with 133% rainfall from June 16-30, making up for the earlier shortfall.
Also See:Â Lives Washed Away: Flash Floods Kill 173 in Himachal, Dam Collapse Adds to Misery
