AUKUS submarine deal under pressure as U.S. tariffs and China fears grow
The AUKUS submarine deal, once hailed as a cornerstone of regional security, is now facing turbulent waters. With new U.S. tariffs taking effect under President Donald Trump and growing uncertainty in Washington, doubts are rising about whether Australia will receive its promised nuclear-powered submarines on time.
At the heart of the issue lies a major concern: can the U.S. boost its submarine production enough to supply both its Navy and Australia? Last month, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles admitted that unless the U.S. hits its targets, Australia’s plan to acquire three Virginia-class submarines by 2032 could fall through.
But that’s not all. Australia must also meet a 2025 deadline to pay the U.S. $2 billion to help upgrade American shipyards. The Trump administration is reportedly pushing for even more funding, adding financial strain to an already complex deal.
Also Read: Project Sunrise Delayed But Not Grounded: Qantas Confirms 2027 Launch
Strategic Silence Raises Concerns
Washington is growing uneasy with Australia’s silence on whether it would use the submarines in a potential conflict with China. According to former U.S. Navy strategist Bryan Clark:
“If you want to deter conflict, in peacetime you need to talk about using it in wartime.”
Recent war games revealed that Australian commanders avoided deploying the nuclear submarines near Taiwan. Instead, they focused on defending northern Australia using airpower, drones, and missiles.
This cautious approach has raised eyebrows in Congress and within the Pentagon. A Congressional Budget Office report warned that selling U.S. submarines to Australia without immediate replacements could weaken America’s regional posture—especially if Australia hesitates to back the U.S. in case of a Taiwan crisis.
The U.S. Navy has already set a 2027 deadline to be fully ready for a potential conflict with China, adding urgency to the debate.
Also Read: Rafale Marine Jets Are Coming: India’s ₹63,000 Cr Naval Game-Changer
Australia’s Defense Strategy at a Crossroads
Peter Dean from the University of Sydney explains that Australia may choose not to be directly involved in Taiwan-related tensions:
“Australia’s priority is to protect its mainland and act as a forward operating base for U.S. forces.”
He also noted that relying on U.S.-operated submarines until 2040 may amount to “outsourcing defence.” Meanwhile, Australia’s limited workforce and budget could cause further delays in building its own fleet.
Despite these concerns, the Australian Submarine Agency insists the AUKUS submarines will support surveillance, strike missions, and strategic deterrence. The Pentagon and U.S. National Security Council have also reaffirmed their commitment to the deal and broader AUKUS implementation.
Politics May Complicate AUKUS Further
Domestic politics could shake the AUKUS submarine deal even more. With Australia’s national elections around the corner and Trump’s tariffs affecting local industries, public support for the deal could waver.
Former PM Scott Morrison, who initiated AUKUS in 2021, remains firm on its necessity:
“China is the threat… and that is what needs to be deterred.”
But current PM Anthony Albanese has taken a quieter stance on China, a contrast opposition leader Peter Dutton is already using as campaign fuel.
Still, the long-term vision of AUKUS remains: U.S.-commanded subs in Perth by 2027, Virginia-class submarines delivered in 2032, and a jointly developed AUKUS-class submarine by 2040.
Also Read: Are B-2 Bombers a Warning to Iran? Pentagon Says ‘Let Them Decide’
