The $5 Trillion Goal
Rajesh Sawhney, a Harvard and LSE alumnus and founder of GSF, recently sparked a debate on X by highlighting India’s economic trajectory. He noted that while India is on track to become a $5 trillion economy by 2027, adding another $1 trillion every 14-18 months afterward would require an annual growth rate of over 12%—significantly higher than the current 6-8%.
Meanwhile, while India took 3-4 years to grow from 3T to 4T, China added two Indias to its economy in the same period.
Why the Gap?
India is making significant progress and is expected to add a record $383 billion to its GDP in 2025, driven by a 6.5% growth rate, bringing the total to $1.26 trillion that year.
The reason? China’s history of double-digit growth. Since 1980, China has hit 10%+ growth 15 times, while India has never crossed 10% (its highest was 9.6% in 1988).
Also Read: China’s Manufacturing Monopoly: Can India Break Free or Stay Boxed Out?
The Future Divide
Back in 1980, India and China were economic equals. But by 2029, China’s GDP will be four times larger. For India to match China’s 2025 GDP addition, it would need a 32% growth in dollar terms—nearly impossible.
Adding to the challenge, China’s shrinking population means higher per capita income, widening the prosperity gap further.
What India Needs
Sawhney suggests three key steps:
- Deeper reforms to improve ease of doing business.
- More foreign investment to boost growth.
- Broader entrepreneurship beyond a few big industrial houses
Also Read: Trump’s Oil Tariffs Spark Global Energy Crisis—India & China Scramble
