Gold is shining brighter than ever. For decades, coal powered Australia’s export economy. But now, gold is quickly catching up. New data from the Australian government shows gold could soon overtake coal as one of the country’s biggest exports.
Coal has long been a money-maker for Australia. It was the top commodity before iron ore took over. But now, gold is making a serious comeback. According to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, gold exports could bring in A$56 billion in the 2025-26 financial year. That’s more than metallurgical coal (A$39 billion) and thermal coal (A$28 billion) when looked at separately.
Right now, coal still leads if both types are combined, totaling A$67 billion. But this could change. By 2026-27, gold might pass coal entirely. The forecast shows gold exports increasing to 313 metric tons, up from 289 tons the year before.
Australia is already the world’s biggest net exporter of gold and the third-largest producer. This new export boom could make that position even stronger.
But there’s a twist. The government’s price forecast for gold is cautious. It expects prices to fall to $2,825 an ounce in 2026-27. That’s much lower than the current price of $3,273. Many analysts think gold could go higher, even touching $4,000 an ounce if global uncertainty continues.
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Why is gold rising? One reason is political change in the U.S. Since Donald Trump was re-elected, gold has gone up by 29%. His new tax and spending plans are expected to add $3.3 trillion to U.S. debt. That makes investors nervous and pushes them towards gold as a safer choice.
On the other hand, coal might not see much growth. The government thinks metallurgical coal will average $201 a ton and thermal coal around $110. But current market prices are already below these levels. Major buyers like China and India want to reduce coal imports and use more domestic supply. Other countries like Japan and South Korea are moving to cleaner fuels like LNG (liquefied natural gas).
If coal demand slows and gold prices stay strong, Australia might see gold overtaking coal as its second-largest export. This is more than just numbers—it’s a shift in what the world values: clean, safe, and stable.
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