The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered India’s economic growth forecast for 2025-26 to 6.2%, down from the earlier estimate of 6.5%. This is mainly due to rising trade tensions and global uncertainty. However, the IMF also noted that India’s growth outlook remains relatively stable, supported by strong private consumption, especially in rural areas.
India grew at 6.5% in 2024-25, but the IMF now expects it to grow at 6.2% in 2026-27, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than the earlier forecast due to the ongoing global challenges.
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On a global scale, the IMF has also worsened its economic outlook. It now predicts global growth to be just 2.8% this year, down from an earlier estimate of 3.3%. In 2026, the global economy is expected to grow at 3%, also lower than the previous forecast. The outlook for the US economy has been downgraded as well, with growth expected to be only 1.8% this year, down from 2.7%. However, the IMF does not expect the US to enter a recession, though the chances of one have increased from 25% to 37%.
