The Indian stock market ended last week on a weak note, breaking its two-week winning streak. The main reason was global tensions caused by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of steep tariff hikes, including a 27% tariff on some Indian goods. This created panic among investors in India and around the world.
This week, several important events will shape the market’s direction as the new financial year (FY26) begins. Key factors include the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy meeting, the beginning of Q4 results, more updates on global tariffs, economic data, and global cues.
Market Performance Last Week:
- Nifty 50 closed at 22,904.40
- Sensex ended at 75,364.69
- Sensex dropped by 2,050 points (2.64%)
- Nifty fell by 614.8 points (2.61%)
- On Friday, the Sensex crashed over 900 points, falling below the 76,000 mark.
The fall was due to a global sell-off after Trump’s tariff hikes, which increased fears of a trade war. Higher US Treasury yields and inflation concerns also affected investor confidence. Safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds saw increased demand.
Key Triggers for the Week Ahead:
1. RBI Monetary Policy Meeting (April 9)
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to decide the interest rates for FY26. Experts expect a 0.25% rate cut. This decision will impact rate-sensitive sectors like banking, real estate, and auto.
2. Q4 Results Start with TCS (April 10)
The quarterly earnings season starts with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) announcing its Q4 results. It may also declare its final dividend for FY25. Market attention will be on the IT sector, which is expected to report weak numbers due to global economic slowdown and reduced tech spending.
3. Macroeconomic Data (April 11 & 15)
- IIP (Industrial Output) Data for March will be out on April 11
- CPI (Retail Inflation) Data for March is likely to be released on April 15, due to a holiday on April 14 (Ambedkar Jayanti)
These numbers will give insights into India’s economic health.
Read More: EU Secretly Prepared for Trade War: ‘Strong Plan’ to Retaliate Against US Tariffs Revealed
4. FII and DII Activity
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have sold stocks worth ₹13,730 crore recently. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), however, bought stocks worth ₹5,632 crore. This shift happened after Trump’s announcement of heavy tariffs, which also led to a 10% drop in US stock markets.
FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) had turned buyers in March but started selling again in April. Analysts warn that a full-blown trade war could slow global growth.
5. Global Cues and Tariff Developments
Markets will watch for:
- Any new global tariffs or trade retaliation
- US Fed’s FOMC meeting minutes on April 9
- US inflation data on April 10
- China’s inflation data on April 10
- UK GDP data for February on April 11
These updates could affect investor sentiment worldwide.
6. Corporate Actions
Some companies, including CRISIL, will trade ex-dividend from April 7. A few others will trade ex-bonus this week.
7. Technical View
- Nifty 50 support: 22,600
- If it falls below that, it could drop to 22,100
- Resistance zone: 23,100–23,400
- A recovery may face selling pressure around this level
Also Read: Market Meltdown: Sensex Crashes 1,400 Points as Trump’s Tariff Threat Sparks Panic
Conclusion
The coming week is packed with important events that will drive market sentiment—starting with the RBI’s policy decision, Q4 earnings, inflation data, and global developments around Trump’s tariff decision. Investors should be cautious and stay tuned for updates, as market volatility is expected to remain high.
