India’s oil imports just hit a turning point. In the fiscal year 2024-25, OPEC’s share fell to an all-time low of 48.5%, as Indian refiners ramped up purchases of discounted Russian crude, which now makes up a whopping 36% of the country’s oil mix. That’s about 1.76 million barrels per day (bpd) from Russia alone—making it India’s top oil supplier for the third year running.
India’s total oil imports rose 5% year-on-year, reaching 4.88 million bpd, with March 2025 marking a five-month high in Russian crude arrivals at 1.7 million bpd.
What Does This Mean for the Average Indian?
Simply put: oil is the lifeblood of India’s economy—from petrol pumps to power stations. Cheaper oil means more manageable fuel prices, lower import bills, and some breathing space for an inflation-sensitive population.
But the shift isn’t just about economics—it’s also geopolitics on the fuel gauge. India’s pivot toward Russia, amid Western sanctions on Moscow, highlights a pragmatic, price-first strategy. With Saudi Aramco pricing remaining steep, Indian refiners followed the golden rule: go where it’s cheap, not necessarily where it’s familiar.
From Baghdad to the Backseat
Once dominant suppliers like Iraq and Saudi Arabia have slipped in the rankings. Iraq now sits in second place, followed by Saudi Arabia in third—both seeing multi-year lows in their market share in India. This comes despite India’s long-standing energy ties with the Middle East.
The math is simple: Russian oil has been sold at steep discounts, especially as Moscow looks to sidestep Western buyers. India saw the opportunity—and grabbed it with both barrels.
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A Recalibration, Not a Divorce
This doesn’t mean India is cutting ties with OPEC. It’s a recalibration, not a breakup. OPEC still supplies nearly half of India’s oil. But Russia’s rise shows how quickly global energy politics can change, especially when prices are high and politics are messy.
In many ways, it’s like switching from your usual grocery store to the one down the road offering massive discounts. Loyalty takes a backseat when the cart is lighter and the wallet feels heavier.
The Global Oil Chessboard
India’s import shift sends a signal: energy diplomacy is evolving fast. As one of the world’s top oil consumers, India has leverage—and it’s using it. By diversifying sources and playing buyers against each other, it’s trying to secure better deals and avoid over-reliance on any single supplier or bloc.
While the West debates policy and sanctions, India is quietly redrawing the map of energy flows—one barrel at a time.
What’s Next?
As long as Russian crude stays cheap and available, India’s strategy won’t change much. But volatility is part of the deal. If prices rise or Western pressure tightens, India may need to rebalance again.
For now, value beats legacy. The rise of Russian oil in India’s energy mix is a reminder that in global trade, flexibility is often more powerful than tradition.
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