Trade Wars + Recession = Oil Crash? Goldman Warns Market Shift

As of April 8, 2025, Brent Crude sits at $64.72 per barrel, while WTI trades at $61.26. These numbers tell a story of uncertainty.

Across the globe, market watchers are focused on oil. Why? Because a few key decisions could shape where Brent Crude and WTI oil prices go next.

Will they rise? Will they crash? It all depends on two big forces—the U.S. economy and OPEC+ supply decisions.

The Base Case: No Recession, Just a Supply Bump

Imagine a world where the U.S. dodges a recession. Tariff reductions kicking in on April 9 boost business confidence. At the same time, OPEC+ decides to increase oil supply by 130,000 to 140,000 barrels daily in June and July.

If this happens, oil prices should stay steady but gradually ease down.

• Brent Crude may fall to $62 by December 2025, and $55 by December 2026.

• WTI Crude could drop to $58 by December 2025, and $51 by December 2026.

This is the best-case outlook—a soft landing for oil.

What If There’s a Recession?

Let’s say things don’t go so smoothly. If the U.S. slips into a recession, and OPEC doesn’t change its supply, prices may dip more sharply.

• Brent Crude might touch $58 by December 2025 and drop further to $50 in 2026.

This scenario would shake investor confidence and weigh down energy demand.

Also Read: Goldman Sachs Shock Warning: 35% Recession Risk as Trump Tariffs Threaten US Economy

Slower Global Growth, Lower Oil Demand

Now, picture a global economic slowdown. Not just the U.S., but major economies like the EU, China, and Japan begin to struggle. Travel slows. Factories cut output.

OPEC+ keeps its current supply level steady, but the lack of demand tells the story.

• Brent Crude could fall to $54 by December 2025, and sink to $45 by 2026.

This is a warning sign to energy traders: when economies slow, so do oil prices.

The Extreme Case: A Deep Dive

What happens if the global economy tanks and OPEC+ fully unwinds its supply limits?

In this worst-case scenario, there’s a flood of oil but not enough buyers.

Brent Crude could fall below $40 by late 2026. That’s a serious crash. This would hurt oil-exporting countries and energy stocks worldwide.

Also Read: Why Is the Modi Government Increasing Petrol and Diesel Tax Even as Global Oil Prices Drop?

The Wildcard: Tariffs Could Flip the Game

Here’s the twist: if there’s a sudden reversal in tariff policy, it could lift global trade and boost oil demand. That would push oil prices above these forecasts.

So, while the trend might seem down, one decision from Washington, Brussels, or Beijing could flip the script.

Final Take: Keep an Eye on Oil’s Next Move

Oil prices are like a weather forecast—driven by global winds. Whether Brent Crude ends up at $62 or below $40 will depend on how leaders handle the economy and energy supply.

Watch the trade talks. Track OPEC+. Stay alert to market shifts.

Because oil’s next move isn’t just about barrels. It’s about the balance between demand, diplomacy, and decisions.

Also Read: Government’s ₹2 Fuel Tax Hike: What It Means for Your Wallet