The job market in the United States is showing signs of slowing down. Experts believe that in June, the country added only 115,000 new jobs, compared to 139,000 in May. If this is true, it would be the smallest increase in jobs since early 2023.
This slowdown is being linked to President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, a hiring freeze in federal jobs, and tough immigration policies, all of which are making businesses more cautious about hiring new workers.
According to estimates, the unemployment rate may rise to 4.3%, which would be the highest since October 2021—but still low historically. Since the post-COVID boom, job growth has slowed down. On average, 124,000 jobs have been added each month in 2025 so far, compared to 168,000 in 2024 and 400,000 between 2021–2023.
In previous years, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve had already slowed hiring. Now, Trump’s sudden and unpredictable policy changes—especially new tariffs—are further shaking business confidence.
A member of the ISM manufacturing group, Susan Spence, said businesses are confused by the back-and-forth decisions on tariffs, which is affecting hiring.
In addition to government data, private job data also shows a drop. Payroll company ADP reported 33,000 fewer jobs in June, mostly in education, healthcare, and business support roles. This is the first decline in years.
ADP’s chief economist Nela Richardson explained that companies are avoiding hiring or replacing workers who leave. However, wages haven’t fallen yet.
Trump has brought back higher tariffs—10% on most US trading partners and even higher duties on steel, aluminium, and cars. These moves raise business costs, leading some companies to cut jobs.
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Carl Weinberg, an economist, warned that if costs rise due to tariffs, more companies may start laying off workers to save money.
Government jobs are also being cut. Oxford Economics estimates a loss of 20,000 public sector jobs in June, due to the hiring freeze and people leaving voluntarily.
Strict immigration enforcement is also shrinking the number of available workers. In May alone, the US workforce shrank by 625,000 people, the biggest drop in 18 months.
Economists say the full picture will become clear once official data is released. But early signs suggest the slowdown might be worse than expected.
Jeffrey Roach from LPL Financial said we may be in for a “negative surprise” and that the overall hiring trend is clearly weakening.
