The US sanctions on Serbian oil NIS are shaking up the country’s entire energy system. NIS, which is majority-owned by Russia’s Gazprom and Gazprom Neft, runs Serbia’s only oil refinery. This facility supplies over 80% of the country’s gasoline and diesel, and more than 90% of its jet fuel.
But now, sanctions are making it harder for NIS to operate smoothly. Despite temporary waivers from the U.S., the pressure is growing—and so is the risk of an oil crisis in Serbia.
Crude Imports Hit Hard
One of the first big effects of the US sanctions on Serbian oil NIS is on crude oil imports. NIS had to cancel its planned 2025 crude tender. Instead of long-term contracts, it’s relying on the spot market—buying from traders willing to take the risk.
But options are limited. Many global traders are avoiding deals with NIS because of its Russian links. As a result, crude imports into Serbia through Croatia’s Omisalj port have dropped sharply—from 70,000 barrels per day in 2023 to just 28,000 barrels per day in 2025.
This massive drop is already affecting operations at the refinery in Pancevo.
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Market Players Shift Gears
Former NIS clients like OMV and EKO have changed their game plans. They’re now bringing in fuel from other routes, such as through the Danube River or via Greece, cutting ties with NIS to avoid getting caught in sanctions fallout.
This shift not only affects NIS’s revenue but also puts more stress on Serbia’s limited fuel import infrastructure.
Check Serbia’s fuel alternatives for deeper insights.
Geography Creates a Fuel Trap
Serbia is landlocked. It doesn’t have easy access to sea routes for fuel imports. That makes it even harder to replace the supply NIS used to provide.
Pipelines are limited. Port access is indirect. And the rail and road infrastructure is under strain. These challenges could lead to delays, shortages, or even fuel price spikes if the situation worsens.
A Growing Political Risk
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has already warned of potential oil supply disruptions. While the U.S. granted 30-day waivers for Gazprom Neft to divest from NIS, the extensions are temporary.
The long-term picture remains murky. Will the divestment happen? Will new investors step in? Or will NIS face a deeper operational freeze?
If the divestment fails or sanctions tighten further, Serbia may find itself in a full-blown energy crisis.
What’s Next for Serbia?
For now, Serbia is walking a tightrope. It’s trying to maintain fuel supplies while dealing with geopolitical tensions it can’t control. NIS continues to operate, but the pressure is mounting by the day.
Energy security is becoming a key national issue, and every new sanction step adds more uncertainty.
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