What if a single earthquake could wipe out half of Japan’s economy? The government says it’s not a matter of “if” but “when.”
The Looming Disaster
Japan sits in one of the most earthquake-prone zones in the world. Now, a new government report warns that a long-feared megaquake could cause $1.8 trillion in damage—nearly half of the country’s GDP—and kill up to 300,000 people. The last estimate was far lower, but updated data shows the risk is even greater.
Why the Sudden Increase in Estimates?
The earlier prediction of $1.4 trillion in damage has jumped due to inflation, updated terrain models, and expanded flood zones. If a magnitude 9 quake hits the Nankai Trough—a 900-km undersea fault line—tsunamis and collapsing buildings could devastate the country.
Also Read: Skyscraper Collapse in Bangkok After Earthquake Raises Safety Alarms
Worst-Case Scenario
- 298,000 deaths if the quake strikes at night in winter.
- 1.23 million evacuees (10% of Japan’s population).
- Nuclear risks? The 2011 Fukushima disaster, triggered by a magnitude 9 quake, killed 15,000. Could history repeat?
Is Japan Prepared?
The government has issued its first-ever megaquake advisory, but with an 80% chance of a major quake in the next few decades, the question isn’t if but when.
Also Read: 7.1 Quake Rocks Tonga—Tsunami Waves Possible, Coastal Evacuations Underway
