Markets are holding their breath as Trump weighs a big decision—whether the U.S. will join the escalating war between Israel and Iran.
Over the past week, the conflict has gone nuclear—literally. Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear sites. In return, Iran launched a swarm of missiles and drones at Israel. The situation is explosive, with no clear exit in sight.
Now all eyes are on Trump, who said he’ll decide in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will step in. But many in his MAGA base are angry at even the idea of another war in the Middle East.
“The ‘two-week deadline’ is vintage Trump,” said Tony Sycamore of IG. “He’s used it before on Russia, tariffs, even Ukraine. Sometimes, nothing happens. But this time, the stakes are far higher.”
Oil Climbs, Stocks Stumble
Despite falling 2% on Friday to $77.22 a barrel, Brent oil is heading for its third straight weekly gain, up 4% this week and 12% the week before. Rising oil prices often mean bad news for inflation and transport costs.
But global stock markets aren’t feeling optimistic. Asia struggled on Friday.
- Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.2%.
- China’s CSI300 rose 0.3%.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.5%.
Still, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares is down 1% for the week.
U.S. markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday, giving Asia little to follow. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down 0.3% in early Asia trade.
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Currency and Central Bank Moves Add to the Mix
The Japanese yen gained as core inflation in Japan hit a two-year high. That’s putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise rates again, though no hike is expected until December.
Meanwhile, European banks are shifting gears.
- The Swiss National Bank cut its rates to zero.
- The Bank of England kept rates steady but hinted at future easing.
- Norway surprised everyone by cutting rates for the first time since COVID.
Gold and Bonds Stay Calm
Despite global jitters, gold fell slightly by 0.2% to $3,363 an ounce. It’s still on track for a 2% weekly loss. The U.S. bond market, reopening in Asia hours, remained calm. Ten-year yields held at 4.389%.
What’s Next?
With rising oil, falling stocks, and the world watching, Trump’s decision in the next 14 days will shape not just markets but possibly the course of the war.
He’s known for bluffs and drama. But this time, real lives and economies hang in the balance.
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