Gold prices are expected to trade with an upward bias this week, according to Manav Modi, Senior Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
What happened last week?
Gold started the week weaker as global tensions eased and expectations on interest rates shifted. Prices fell briefly after confusion about U.S. tariffs on Swiss gold was cleared up—the White House denied the reports, which led to a retreat in gold prices.
Optimism about a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, supported by President Trump’s meetings with both leaders, also reduced gold’s safe-haven demand.
Later, the focus shifted to U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Powell’s dovish comments reinforced hopes of a September rate cut. Initially, the chances of a 25-bps rate cut fell from 99% to 84%, but rose back above 90% after Powell’s remarks. However, over the weekend, the probability slipped again, limiting gold’s gains.
Political pressure also came into play as President Trump demanded Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s resignation and warned about possible sanctions on Russia.
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Other factors affecting gold
- In India, fluctuations in the USD-INR exchange rate and a stronger U.S. dollar restricted gold’s gains.
- Weak inflation data from China dragged down industrial metals.
What to watch this week
This week’s U.S. economic data—including consumer confidence, GDP, and inflation—will be important. Stronger inflation or better economic performance could delay a rate cut, which may limit gold’s upside. On the other hand, if the dovish stance continues, both gold and silver could gain further.
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Analyst’s View
- Trend: Sideways to higher
- Price Range: ₹99,000 – ₹1,01,000
- If prices hold above this level, gold could hit all-time highs.
