Wall Street is rallying. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq just hit fresh all-time highs. But behind the celebrations, there’s unease. And the reason is simple: Trump.
After the tariff shock in April, triggered by Trump’s sudden move to slap reciprocal tariffs on major U.S. trade partners, markets took a serious hit. The S&P 500 almost entered bear market territory. Crude oil prices jumped, inflation fears rose, and investors started to panic.
Now, things are looking up again. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran has cooled down oil prices. Trump has also softened his stance on the harshest tariffs. That helped markets recover. But the recovery feels fragile. Many investors are still on edge, worried that another Trump announcement could change everything in seconds.
“Nobody wants to end a week with too much risk in their portfolio,” said Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth. “One wildcard from Trump can flip the mood fast.”
This isn’t just about one policy. It’s about the way Trump works. Markets are used to some level of unpredictability, but this level of chaos is different. From deregulation and tax cuts to sudden tariff wars, Trump’s style has been wild—and often whiplash-inducing.
Analysts call it “extreme policy uncertainty.” Some, like Mark Spindel, even compare the president to a day trader. “One day it’s no negotiations, the next he’s shaking hands,” Spindel said. He calls it a Snapchat presidency—here today, gone tomorrow.
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Even though volatility has dropped since April’s peak, deep worries remain. The VIX index, a key market fear gauge, has calmed down. But beneath the surface, market depth is thin. Options traders aren’t chasing the rally like they used to. Bid-ask spreads are wide. Institutional investors are hesitant.
Liz Ann Sonders from Charles Schwab summed it up:
“The market is unstable. We could be heading toward another sharp fall if we’re not careful.”
Still, some think Trump’s fast changes might work in the market’s favor—at least for now. If he listens to Wall Street signals and backs off risky moves, the rally might continue. But many warn it’s risky to count on consistency from a president who shifts gears daily.
As one strategist put it, “For now, stocks are giving Trump a pass. But the leash is short.”
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