In a surprising move, major oil-producing countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and six others from the OPEC+ group have decided to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. This is more than what experts were expecting — analysts had predicted a smaller hike of 411,000 bpd, which had been the set increase for May, June, and July.
The group explained that they made this decision because the global economy looks steady and the oil market is strong, with low oil stockpiles around the world.
What Analysts Are Saying
Jorge Leon from Rystad Energy said this bigger increase shows that OPEC+ is focusing on gaining more market share. He added that two big questions still remain:
- Will OPEC+ remove more production limits after lifting the current voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd?
- Will the world need that much oil?
With oil prices staying above $60 per barrel, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in places like the Middle East, Ukraine, and Libya, Leon believes the answer could be yes.
Read more: Crude May Dip Below $60 by Year-End, Says S&P; India’s Oil Use to Rise
Giovanni Staunovo from UBS noted that countries like Kazakhstan and Iraq have been producing more oil than they were allowed, which may have influenced this decision to increase production now.
Background & Recent Events
- Earlier, OPEC+ had been cutting oil production since 2022 to keep prices high.
- But since May 2025, eight countries led by Saudi Arabia started producing more oil, which caused oil prices to fall to between $65 and $70 per barrel.
- A recent conflict between Iran and Israel caused oil prices to temporarily spike above $80, as people feared the Strait of Hormuz (a key oil route) might be blocked.
According to reports, even though the group had planned to double production in May, they only managed to increase it by 200,000 bpd. This new hike might be Saudi Arabia’s way of pressuring other members to stick to the rules, by reducing how much profit they can make when prices drop.
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